The telecom operators may go for another round of tariff hikes in the second half of the current fiscal, as subscriber additions stabilise and the impact of the July 2024 hikes begins to taper off, according to analysts.
Data from the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (Trai) shows a steady return to net subscriber growth, led by Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel. Jio, in particular, has seen consistent additions since January 2025, adding 2.17 million users in March, up from 1.7 million the previous month. Airtel added 1.25 million users in March, while Vodafone Idea continued to shed subscribers, losing over 541,000 in the same period.
Total industry additions stood at 2.9 million in March, signalling improving momentum for the sector. Analysts at Jefferies noted that these numbers suggest the market has fully absorbed the July 2024 tariff hikes and may now be ready for the next round. They also pointed to Jio’s rebound in active subscriber additions, outpacing Airtel after three consecutive months of lagging behind, as a positive signal for overall sector pricing power.
Jio’s active subscriber base increased by 5.03 million to reach 451 million by the end of March, while Airtel’s grew by 1.5 million to 389.68 million. Vodafone Idea’s active base slipped by 40,000 users.
Jio highlighted during its Q4FY25 earnings call that 45% of its subscriber base now uses 5G services, with data consumption per user rising steadily. While the company stopped short of offering any timeline for the next hike, management said increased content consumption and 5G usage present a significant monetisation opportunity.
Given that Jio accounted for around 70% of the industry’s net additions in March, analysts believe it may feel more confident leading a price hike in the coming months. However, not everyone agrees that a hike is imminent. UBS analysts argue that the market may still struggle to absorb another round of price increases. Since the July hike, Airtel has gained 0.8 million subscribers, but Jio and Vodafone Idea have together lost close to 19 million, raising concerns about consumer price sensitivity.
Despite these concerns, telcos may still choose to push through a hike to improve their customer mix and lift average revenue per user (Arpu). Jio’s Arpu rose from Rs 181.7 to Rs 206.2 between Q2FY25 and the end of March 2025.
As of March 2025, Jio had a total subscriber base of 469.76 million, Airtel stood at 389.8 million, and Vodafone Idea at 205.36 million. The latter, which has been steadily losing market share, had earlier advocated for more frequent tariff hikes during its Q3 earnings call.