Two days after the latest in a string of test-flight setbacks for his big new Mars spacecraft, Starship, Elon Musk said on Thursday he foresees the futuristic vehicle making its first uncrewed voyage to the red planet at the end of next year.
Musk presented a detailed Starship development timeline in a video posted online by his Los Angeles area-based rocket company, SpaceX, a day after saying he was departing the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump as head of a tumultuous campaign to slash government bureaucracy.
The billionaire entrepreneur had said earlier that he was planning to scale back his role in government to focus greater attention on his various businesses, including SpaceX and electric car and battery maker Tesla Inc.
Musk acknowledged that his latest timeline for reaching Mars hinged on whether Starship can accomplish a number of challenging technical feats during its flight-test development, particularly a post-launch refueling maneuver in Earth orbit.
Musk gave his company a 50-50 chance of meeting that deadline. If Starship were not ready by that time, SpaceX would wait another two years before trying again, Musk suggested in the video.
The first flight to Mars would carry a simulated crew consisting of one or more robots of the Tesla-built humanoid Optimus design, with the first human crews following in the second or third landings. Musk said he envisioned eventually launching 1,000 to 2,000 ships to Mars every two years to quickly establish a self-sustaining permanent human settlement.
NASA is currently aiming to return humans to the surface of the moon aboard Starship as early as 2027 – more than 50 years after its last manned lunar landings of the Apollo era – as a stepping stone toward ultimately launching astronauts to Mars sometime in the 2030s.
Musk, who has advocated for a more Mars-focused human spaceflight program, has previously said he was aiming to send an unmanned SpaceX vehicle to the red planet as early as 2018 and was targeting 2024 to launch a first crewed mission there.
The SpaceX founder was scheduled to deliver a livestream presentation billed as “The Road to Making Life Multiplanetary” from the company’s Starbase, Texas, launch site on Tuesday night, following a ninth test flight of Starship that evening.
But the webcast was canceled without notice after Starship spun out of control and disintegrated in a fireball about 30 minutes after launch and roughly halfway through its flight path without achieving some of its most important test goals.