By Somit Dasgupta
As we all know like the back of our hand, during the 21st Conference of Parties (COP21) at Paris in 2015, it was decided that we should try and limit the rise in the earth’s temperature to 1.5 degrees centigrade by 2100 when compared to the pre-industrial era. Of course, 1.5 °C is the mean temperature, which implies that certain parts of the planet would be above 1.5 °C. The fact is that we have already crossed the mean temperature of 1.5 °C in 2024 as reported by some organisations. Each successive report of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) paints a picture that is more grim when compared to the previous one. Similar concerns have been raised by other organisations, such as the World Resources Institute and the United Nations Development Programme in their publications titled the State of Climate Action and Climate Inequality Report, respectively. In order to give a fillip to renewable power generation, it was agreed (during COP28) that renewable capacity should be trebled and that energy efficiency should be doubled by 2030. These are noble thoughts but not easy to implement due to various reasons; however, it is not the objective of this piece to elaborate on this.
Instead, one will try and give a picture of what has really happened when it comes to fossil fuel-based electricity generation after the Paris Agreement. Globally, coal-based generation capacity has seen an increase of about 661 gigawatts (Gw) since 2015. India and China alone account for 76% of this increase although China’s role is more dominant. While China has added about 419 Gw since 2015, India has added 87 Gw. So effectively, since 2015, China has added to its coal-based generating capacity, which is almost five times of what India has done. This data has been sourced from the website of the Global Energy Monitor, an organisation which analyses data for a sustainable energy future. This mammoth increase in capacity in China has enabled a yearly generation of about 8,000 billion units with a per capita consumption of a little more than 6,000 units. This, incidentally, is better than the European Union’s average.
Although both India and China have added substantial coal-based capacity, there is a difference. China, along with adding to its coal-based capacity, has made huge addition to its renewable-based generating capacity as well. China added 389 Gw of solar capacity during the period 2015-2024 while the corresponding figure for wind power is 322 Gw. In sharp contrast, India added only 66 Gw in solar capacity and about 19 Gw of wind capacity in the same period. Speaking of the share of coal in the total generation of electricity, one sees a decline in China from 70% to 61% in the last 10 years or so, whereas in the case of India the share of coal is almost static at about 75%.
There is yet another difference between the Indian and Chinese coal-based generating capacity and that is related to technology. China has about 380 Gw of ultra-super critical units and about 311 Gw of super critical units. Together, these two technologies comprise about 60% of its total coal-based capacity. The Indian case is very different. India has only about 3.6 Gw of ultra-super critical units and about 70 Gw of super critical units. Together, they account for about 33% of the total coal-based capacity. Further, ultra-super critical technology has been deployed in China for more than 20 years but India has had ultra-super critical units since the last 10 years only. For the benefit of readers, ultra-super critical technology and super critical technology have a higher efficiency rate (about 46% and 42% respectively) compared to sub-critical technology (about 35%) and hence, they burn less coal and allows one to economise on carbon emissions.
Coming to environmental norms for the power sector, China introduced very strict environmental norms way back in 2011. The norms, especially for new plants, were as good as or even stricter than what was prevalent in the developed world. As far as flue gas desulphurisers (FGDs) are concerned, Chinese plants had started installing them much earlier (2006) and consequently, by 2013, the country had installed FGDs practically for its entire fleet of coal-based generating capacity.
India introduced its revised environmental norms in 2015, which were also comparable to world standards except that we faulted when it came to execution. We kept on postponing compliance on some pretext or the other and in some cases even diluted the norms. Installation of FGDs is pathetic and almost no state generator has installed it. Coming to central sector plants too, the compliance rate is less than 5% of the capacity. The private sector plants are somewhat better as about 13% of the capacity has installed FGDs. The irony is that one of the leading engineering institutions in India has questioned the efficacy of installing FGDs since their study (conducted in 2023) revealed that in an attempt to capture sulphur oxides (which is the job of FGDs) carbon dioxide is being released, implying that FGDs is causing enhanced carbon footprints.
To sum up, although China has added to its coal-based generating capacity manifold, it has pursued renewable generation with equal vigour. Also, steps have been taken to contain carbon emissions through the adoption of superior technology and also by adopting strict environmental standards and implementing them in letter and spirit.
The writer is senior visiting fellow, ICRIER.
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