Infosys is likely to see a marginal sequential growth in revenue, and a dip in profit in the January-March quarter weighed down by seasonal weakness and macroeconomic headwinds.
The company will announce its earnings for the fourth quarter on April 17.
According to brokerages, the company’s guidance for FY26 is likely to remain cautious amid persistent softness in discretionary IT spending and uncertainties arising from global geopolitical developments, including trade tensions and tariff wars.
The January-March quarter has historically been challenging for Infosys, and this year is no exception. Brokerages have pointed to seasonal factors, such as client budget resets and wage hikes, as well as external pressures like the US government’s evolving trade policies. Kotak Institutional Equities, for instance, has forecast a sequential revenue decline of 2.3%, citing reduced sales from third-party items and subdued demand. Similarly, ICICI Securities expects a revenue decline of 0.6%, while Elara Capital and Nuvama peg the constant currency revenue dip around 1% to 2% quarter-on-quarter.
Kotak has estimated a 3.3% fall in net profit, while Nuvama has projected a decline of 1.3%. Margins, too, are expected to be squeezed, mainly due to annual wage hikes for senior management, visa-related expenses, and weaker operating leverage. ICICI Securities expects a 50 basis point contraction in Ebit margin, only partially mitigated by favourable currency movement and reduced third-party software licensing costs. Motilal Oswal expects a slightly steeper margin dip of 70 basis points, though it has said that cost optimisation measures could provide some relief.
On the deal front, Infosys continues to maintain a robust pipeline, but deal closures remain sluggish as clients tighten budgets and focus more on cost-saving programmes than new investments. Kotak has pegged the total contract value of large deals for the quarter at around $3 billion, a drop from the year-ago period, and has said that investor attention will be focused on the annual contract value and quality of wins.
The outlook for FY26 is expected to remain restrained, with revenue growth guidance projected to range between 1% and 6% in constant currency terms. Most brokerages have said that Infosys will retain its operating margin guidance of 20–22%. Analysts will be watching for management commentary on client spending behaviour, pricing pressure stemming from AI-led automation, and the broader implications of trade tensions, particularly in key sectors like manufacturing and industrials.
Hiring trends also remain under scrutiny. According to BNP Paribas, Infosys continues to prioritise internal talent mobility over external hiring. The commentary on fresher on-boarding, lateral hiring, and workforce strategy will be closely watched as investors seek cues on demand momentum and cost management in the quarters ahead.